by Geoff Andrews



This is the election that few Italians wanted. One of the failures of Romano Prodi's disputatious government, elected by a narrow majority in the election of 9-10 April 2006, was the strengthening of the belief among its citizens that Italy's political class was more remote than ever. La Caste (as Sergio Rizzo & Gianantonio Stella have described Italy's political elite) - better paid and more numerous than its European peers, overwhelmingly male and more likely to have been involved in criminal activities - is seemingly entrenched in power.

An early election has been inevitable since Prodi resigned on 24 January 2008 after losing a vote of condfidence in the senate. Nothing that has happened since then - certainly not the campaign populism of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi or the studied moderation of emergent centre-left leader Walter Veltroni - has altered the belief in La Caste's enduring position.

The campaign for the the vote on 13-14 April 2008 has been lacklustre. It has come to life only in its final days, when Berlusconi raised the stakes (as he did in the 2006 election) by warning of centre-left cheating and voting irregularities. Veltroni's response was first to call for his rival to respect the constitution and then to repeat the claim made by the Economist in July 2003, that Berlusconi was "unfit to govern".

Silvio Berlusconi's record

But the question is not merely who is fit to govern, but whether Italy can be governed. The election is being conducted under an absurd electoral system bequeathed by Silvio Berlusconi shortly before the 2006 election and designed to prevent a clear majority from emerging. It is arguable that the most likely outcome of this or any other election taking place under such rules is that Italy will become (or remain, some would argue) virtually ungovernable (see "Italy's governing disorder" [31 January 2008]).

Yet Italy needs to elect a government capable of reforming its institutions and to revive a sluggish economy. Italy's economy underwent rapid decline during Silvio Berlusconi's second period in office between 2001-06 (the first had lasted only from April 1994 to January 1995); and while Romano Prodi reduced the spiralling public-spending deficit, the economy is still in a perilous condition. Ten years ago, Italy had surpassed the British economy in respect of the citizens' purchasing power and was second only to Germany among the leading five European Union economies. Now, it has fallen behind Spain and Greece, a statistic that few of Italy's political class are willing to admit. It is now second-last amongst the fifteen pre-enlargement EU countries; on current projections, according to the Italian think-tank Vision, will be overtaken by the ex-communist countries over the next decade.

The economic record of the previous Silvio Berlusconi government, his unresolved "conflicts of interest" as media entrepreneur and prime minister, and his ineptness as a statesman make many Italians as well as those of other nationalities wonder how it is possible that he might win again. Berlusconi himself has no doubts. His election slogan, Rialzati Italia ("Get Up, Italy") reflects his belief that his success as an entrepreneur can lift the aspirations of his people. His usual populism has shaped his campaign strategy, which has included his claim that he has a business plan waiting to buy out the ailing Alitalia. When asked by a young woman what he proposes to do for people like herself struggling on a low income, his response was that she should marry a millionaire like his son. Worryingly, she took his answer in good faith and will probably vote for him. It is a measure of the inability of Romano Prodi's government to make significant economic change that Berlusconi is still able to do this.